RugbyShout

Close this man down!

The Wallaby team has been named for Saturday’s test. This is an opportunity to storm the Kiwi beachhead in a do or die effort to remain alive in the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cups. 

In the real world most will say that this is an impossible task. Is the best that we can hope for an honourable defeat and strategic withdrawal à la Dunkirk? 

Or can we steer our undermanned battlegroup through the obstacles of Juno, Omaha or Gold Beach and give Jerry (or Smug Ted in this case) a bloody nose? 

Perhaps a win is beyond us but let’s go down fighting in the process. Although Dunkirk was a loss, at least they lived to fight another day and eventually prevail.

They don’t come much tougher than at Lancaster Park (formerly Jade, now AMI, to be Stadium Christchurch for the RWC - yawn)? 

The weather isn’t likely to do us any favours either as they’re forecasting rain, a top of 5C and a 14km/h zephyr on Saturday night. 

That should lower the Wallabies’ fragile mental state another notch or two. Inclement NZ weather has always provided a ready-made excuse for losses in the past. 

Let’s hope that this unique group rises above all that and displays a bit of passion. You know, I think that’s one of the downsides to professional rugby. It’s a bit sterile and seems more focussed on tactics. 

As Buddha would say, where’s the passion Gordon? Didn’t see too much of it last week. We were out-enthused by a team who would die for their cause. 

Speaking of tactics, the weather may necessitate a change in ours but the kicking will have to be deadly accurate as their counter-attacking skills are, as we’ve seen, damaging. 

And those restarts? I doubt whether they’ll be a factor this week. It’ll be somewhere else where the focus will lie. Maybe scrum time – there should be plenty of those in the wet? 

The Wallabies have made a couple of changes from last week with more young talent introduced. Fair enough too if you’re not performing. 

Deans has brought in Anthony Faingaa for his debut run-on test, with Sookface returning to the bench.

Kurtley Beale gets a guernsey at fullback courtesy of Rob Horne’s injury.

Twin brother Saia Faingaa is now the starting hooker after a very solid introduction to international rugby. He plays a fairly dynamic defensive game around the ruck.

Squeeky Moore heads back to the bench but I’d imagine he’ll be getting plenty of game time.   

As expected, AAC is moved to outside centre where he is probably the only viable option at present. Cam Shepherd has overcome the flu and is in the reserves.

I’m not sure that only one change to the forward pack is going to make that much of a difference but who am I to argue with the Master Coach?

For me, the question marks surrounding Dean Mumm, Richard Brown and Salesi Ma’afu still remain. 

Inconsistency suggests that the Wobblies will be due to bounce back but I reckon it’ll again be a little ugly and Saving Private Deans will be beyond our capabilities. 

More likely Meet the Fockers. Same result but perhaps a little less hurtful…. 

Wallabies: Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Anthony Faingaa, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Will Genia, Richard Brown, David Pocock, Rocky Elsom (c), Nathan Sharpe, Dean Mumm, Salesi Ma’afu, Saia Faingaa, Benn Robinson. 

Reserves: Stephen Moore, James Slipper, Rob Simmons, Matt Hodgson, Luke Burgess, Berrick Barnes, Cameron Shepherd. 

All Blacks: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Joe Rokocoko, Dan Carter, Piri Weepu, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (c), Jerome Kaino, Tom Donnelly, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. 

Reserves: Corey Flynn, Ben Franks, Sam Whitelock, Victor Vito, Alby Mathewson, Aaron Cruden, Benson Stanley.

WARNING!!! If the pain from yesterday’s video on lost possession hasn’t subsided, don’t watch the video because although it’s not quite as painful, it’s shows plenty of ”basic” mistakes the Wallabies need to eliminate.

In the first four tests of the season the Wallabies have kicked the ball 82 times – that’s around 40% of the times they’ve started a possession sequence.

In the first game of the Tri Nations last weekend New Zealand kicked 44% of the times they started a possession sequence and South Africa 53%.

Click on “Read More” to see the video and further anlysis of the teams kicking performances so far in 2010.

As part of our statistical analysis we measure the effectiveness of kicks based on the outcome so a Kick (-) is a kick that:

• Gained no ground; or 
• Gave possession back to the opposition without a contest; or
• Opened an opportunity for the opposition to counter or kick the ball back and gain more ground than the original kick; or
• Wasted an opportunity to attack with ball in hand.

For example a box kick that goes too far and gives the catcher time to take and then shift the ball before the chasers can get there is a Kick (-), whereas the same kick that gives time for the chasers to arrive and contest possession is a Kick (+), unless of course there was an overlap in attack and the ball should of been passed instead of being kicked.

It’s a subjective thing but those are the sort of guidelines we work with. Other kicks like the Kurtley Beale grubber against Ireland are not contentious and are clearly a Kick (-). If a kick was the right option but it was poorly executed it will also earn a Kick (-).

As you can see from the graph the Wallabies kicking was worst in the game against Fiji but that was to be expected, being the first game of the season.  The game against England in Perth was the Wallabies best kicking performance but then dropped back against against England in Sydney and then Ireland. 

Our season rating for the Wallabies so far is 72% (+).  In the first game of the Tri Nations last weekend we rated New Zealand at 68% (+) and South Africa at 63% (+) so the Wallabies performance hasn’t been too bad, albeit against lesser opposition. 

Where the Wallabies do need to improve is in cutting down some of the simple mistakes they’ve been making as you’ll see in the following video.  

The Reds share the love

Well I guess we can now stop speculating whether the Reds are the real thing  – they are. Their uncompromising win over the Stormers last night confirmed this point and it is worth noting they have beaten the other three teams that sit above them on the table at the moment.

The Reds win against the Stormers was about as close to “winning-ugly” they have come to all year. In all their games there have been enough flourishes of attack for them to be called the entertainers. Such a statement misses the point that most victories this season have been built on defence.

What it  also displayed was the Reds ability to win a game that did not go to plan. The Reds were taken away from their game plan but showed the nous to be able to scrap a win.

Speaking about how the game unfolded Link highlighted the plan the Reds took into the game, and how this changed as the night wore on.

“We thought we might attack them a little more but they tackled us very well so you’ve got to give them credit but credit to our guys also for finding a way to win”

Once again the Reds showed little touches that flustered and surprised the opposition.

Last week the Bulls struggled with the Reds at the lineout not knowing if they would compete in the air or stay on the ground to mitigate the rolling maul and it was this confusion that lead to Rocket Rod’s try early in the second half.

This week it was the Reds again playing with their oppositions collective heads as they dis-engaged after a lineout as the Stormers formed a maul with the Reds receiving the penalty for obstruction.

Not a new tactic, but a very effective one.

The Reds also took to combating the tallest man on the field with the shortest. At the lineout it was Will Genia (1.74m) who provided the option and negated Andries Bekker’s (2.08m) effectiveness at stealing oppositions’ throws – it was David vs Goliath stuff.

Genia finished the night with three lineouts wins and this relatively simple tactic distracted the Stormers lineout defence and rendered it useless.

The kick is something the Reds have used sparingly so far this year but last night against the Stormers they kicked plenty, 24 times in fact. Double what the Reds kicked the week before against the Bulls.

The cross field kick was clearly part of the plan for the outside men to find space and McKenzie was happy with how it worked.

“We knew we had to kick a little bit and tactically that was an option for us given the way and the speed with which they defend with and how enthusiastic they are off the line.

“There were opportunities there but you’ve got to be good enough to get the kick to work and luckily enough Quade got a good one and Will read it well”

It wasn’t all sunshine and happiness for the Reds who started poorly and were unable to find any sort of rhythm in the first half as their natural up tempo rugby failed to yield results.

Link seemed somewhat philosophical about the slow start.

“You’ve got to remember that we are a young side and they are in un-chartered territory. The weight of expectation gets heavier as the weeks go on and that can manifest itself in many different ways.

‘We didn’t settle into a rhythm in the first half and you’ve got to give some credit to the opposition, they were very physical. But, as I said, we found a way to work through that.”

You can talk about the technical aspects of the Reds play but perhaps something that is not rating a mention is the emotional aspect.

To sit, watch and support the Reds during a game is to be on a roller-coaster as they thrill, frustrate, amaze and under-whelm at times in equal measure.

Everyone (even the mungoes) who speak to me about the Reds love the way they play. It’s not so much because they tackle well or throw plenty of passes, but because they are having a Red-hot go.

Call it youthful exuberance perhaps, but whatever it is – it’s new, its’ fresh and as the 30-odd thousand punters that showed up to Lang Park can attest, it’s fantastic.

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